Marginal rise in air fares forecast for 2019

By Andy Hoskins, published 10/01/2019

The cost of flights within the UK and Europe are expected to rise by 2% in the year ahead but could drop to some global destinations, according to a new report from American Express Global Business Travel.

GBT’s Air Monitor 2019 forecasts a 2% rise across both economy and business class cabins, as well as similar rises in both cabins for fares to Asian and North America.

Economy fares to Central and South America are set to fall 1% while business class fares show no change.

Business class fares to the Middle East, meanwhile, will drop 1% and remain unchanged in economy.

Demand for flights are outpacing capacity, says the report, while airlines are renewing aircraft to improve efficiency rather than to expand volume.

As a result, it continues, flights from the UK and Europe are set to generally increase across the board.

“While current global political and economic uncertainties create a challenging environment for price forecasting, it’s important for buyers to access the information and insights that help them drive better value in their air programmes,” says Joakim Johansson, Vice President of Business Development, American Express GBT.

“For the Air Monitor 2019, we have developed a robust, scientific methodology that combines GBT’s own historical flight transaction data with a wide range of critical metrics that drive supply and demand, shaping pricing conditions.”

GBT examined five years’ worth of flight transaction data and factored in variables such as oil prices, economic projections and airline strategies.

The travel management company has also released a Smarter Buying white paper providing insight and advice on driving savings and traveller wellbeing.

amexglobalbusinesstravel.com